Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 38.369859 41.853702 45.724449 50.388155 55.916240 62.340960 70.497685
2025-06-29 33.110259 37.368785 42.396517 48.896236 57.277750 68.035912 83.476326
2025-07-06 29.670928 34.174315 39.691447 47.151042 57.330045 71.358076 93.506187
2025-07-13 28.705378 33.763220 40.205090 49.350990 62.661191 82.647224 118.399708
2025-07-20 27.026477 32.225052 39.018056 48.988499 64.176205 88.493683 136.648315
2025-07-27 26.577740 32.214234 39.813166 51.441205 70.238640 103.116219 179.021575
2025-08-03 25.718918 31.555081 39.610081 52.339391 73.923283 114.625603 223.339214
2025-08-10 24.750809 30.658704 38.965785 52.440298 76.217748 124.123907 271.631362
2025-08-17 23.497489 29.274932 37.491201 51.035329 75.547694 127.136158 303.116182
2025-08-24 22.350018 27.975754 36.050303 49.538516 74.470717 128.947481 333.216315
2025-08-31 22.027528 27.838450 36.339442 50.941671 79.189156 146.339722 466.425564
2025-09-07 21.295940 27.060377 35.585370 50.466858 80.041995 154.140115 574.461340
2025-09-14 20.398171 26.114606 34.697029 50.023140 81.691292 167.591672 834.707582
2025-09-21 19.346076 24.889054 33.293794 48.531307 80.862620 173.686228 1127.125648
2025-09-28 18.353181 23.695110 31.853269 46.808265 79.172206 176.247027 1473.736693
2025-10-05 18.205610 23.768939 32.461989 48.980815 87.170974 221.260126 13243.144762
2025-10-12 17.608389 23.112036 31.806943 48.622895 88.826221 242.860839 NaN
2025-10-19 17.529665 23.254719 32.501871 51.044226 98.658984 322.943197 NaN
2025-10-26 17.203174 22.982856 32.457354 51.930662 104.552483 398.015689 NaN
2025-11-02 16.782436 22.535963 32.070343 52.030240 108.122820 469.917034 NaN
2025-11-09 16.178366 21.764688 31.058097 50.643614 106.487133 488.148224 NaN
2025-11-16 15.599081 21.012615 30.043435 49.165967 104.258981 497.377124 NaN
2025-11-23 15.450116 20.957916 30.284144 50.551167 112.446298 691.423390 NaN